Here is just a reminder that I am playing the Beat the Pundit Political Game. Now Chris Matthews admitted on his show that the conventional wisdom in the Beltway is that the Democrats will take the House. They also seem to think that the Republicans are losing four seats and the Democrats will hold all of their seats in the Senate. My predictions are a Republican hold of both House and Senate followed by a tidal wave of people trying to make it sound like a Democratic victory. As a refresher, I am saying Republican 54 to Democrat 44 with 2 Independents or 54 to 46 if we want to count them as Democrats. And for the House, I am predicting Republicans 227 to Democrats 208. Remember these predictions were made before Mark Foley’s scandal broke. Now just for some comparison I found a few predictions on the web.
Mort Kondracke predicts a two-seat majority for the Democrats right after the Foley scandal, and then moved to a 10-seat majority by the end of October. He thinks Democrats pick up 4 seats in both.
Fred Barns predicts a two-seat majority for Republicans the week after Foley in the House, but has since changed his mind for a three-seat majority for Democrats.
The good people at Electoral-Vote.com are saying the House will be 225 to 208 with 2 ties as of today, and they are calling for a slim 51 to 49 hold for Republicans in the Senate.
And just to see if I can beat a polling company, Rasmussen is predicting for the Senate a 52 to 48 Republican majority, although they are calling five of those races toss up.
Feel free to play along or send links to places where other people are making predictions.
If I were to change my two month old predictions I would have the House at 220 for the Republicans, but I won't, because that is cheating.
ReplyDeleteHowever as an update, big change over at Electoral Vote. They are not predicting a Democratic take over of the House to the tune of 239 to 196.
I predict a disappointment big-time for Democrats. The reason is that Republicans are not always responsive to polls. I know that I would never participate in one. But oftentimes, they just quietly vote. And upset people's expectations. There is a war on. And Democrats have no positive agenda. I predict that not much will change.
ReplyDeleteI found a few more pundits to challenge.
ReplyDeleteLarry Sabato - 51 to 49 and 232 to 203 in favor of the Dems
Electoral Vote.com ends with a 51 to 49 and a 243-193-with one tie for the Dems.
Chuck Todd thinks it will be 52 to 48 (could go either way he thinks), and possibly 219 to 216 for Repubs or 233 for the Dems with five in play. Nothing in between for Chuck Todd.