Thursday, September 07, 2006

Predictions for the Elections

I watch some of MSNBC’s 2006 Election coverage today. I watched mainly Tucker and Scarborogh, who both lean Republican/Conservative. Both were surprisingly down on Republican chances to hold the House and even thinking they could lose the Senate. I have to admit I am completely flabbergasted at those predictions. So I have decided to play beat the pundits.

I will go ahead and predict that the Republicans will hold onto control of both the House and the Senate. I do think they will lose seats in both, but they will not lose control of either. It seemed to me that all the experts were quoting silly poll numbers such as the always popular “Is the country on the right track?” Those numbers can be dismissed without much thought because there are many conservatives such as myself who would say ‘no’, but that does not translate to a Democrat victory or vote for that matter. Why the people on these shows insist on using nation wide polls to determine trends is beyond me. Take a look at Election Projection. This site has the Republicans hanging onto slim leads in both houses. This site does not have the Republicans gaining any seats and does not even look at some House races that are contested Democratic held seats such as South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District. The Rasmussen Report has a slightly rosier picture for the Republicans in the Senate. While they have 50 seats Republican and 45 Democrat and 5 in the Toss up category, it looks good for Republicans winning 3 of the 5 including knocking off Democrat Senator Menendez of New Jersey. This is also not counting the Maryland race since a Democratic candidate has not yet been chosen. That race should prove close. It also seems to count Lieberman as a Democrat, but technically I think he counts as an Independent.

So here is my prediction.
SenateRepublicans 54, Democrats 44, Independents 2 (both voting Democratic most of the time). The Republicans will knock of one Democratic incumbent, while losing Santorum and DeWine. Lieberman will win his race. Missouri and Montana are the key races for Democrats to win, and they must hold New Jersey and Maryland. They will hold one of the two and lose both Missouri and Montana.

House - Republicans –227, Democrats 208. I just cannot see the Democrats picking up enough seats. The Democrats need to sweep through Pennsylvania Districts 06, 07, 08, and they are behind in two of the three and the third is a toss up according to most polls. The Republicans will be out in force in Pennsylvania to try and save Santorum, so those pick-ups will be difficult. Most Democratic take over plans include winning Tom Delay’s old seat, and polls are ineffective where the Republicans are planning a write in. If the Dems lose this race, it is a bad omen for them nationally. I also think the Southern races will tighten leaning toward the Republicans as Nov. 7th approaches. This will negate some possible Democratic gains, and may cost them a few seats they currently hold.

Come back on the 7th of November to see how I did against the Pundits!